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02/01/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In the 2007 NFL season, the New England Patriots reached the Super Bowl on the strength of an extraordinarily explosive offense that contained a record-setting quarterback, a wide receiver with over 100 catches and another with six Pro Bowl citations to his credit.
In the 2011 NFL season, the New England Patriots also reached the Super Bowl on the strength of an extraordinary explosive offense that contained a record- setting quarterback, a wide receiver with over 100 catches and another with six Pro Bowl citations to his credit.
So what's changed, if anything, in the four years in between?
Well for starters, that decorated wide receiver in 2007 was Randy Moss, a controversial acquisition prior to that season who ended up setting a new league standard with 23 touchdown receptions in one of the most dominant offensive campaigns ever produced.
The Patriots hoped history would repeat itself when the team traded for the equally-accomplished and polarizing Chad Ochocinco in late July, but weren't able to capture lightning in a bottle this time. The colorful veteran had the least productive season of his 11-year career, finishing with a mere 15 catches while barely seeing the field during his new team's playoff run.
If solely comparing the numbers of those two star players, it's hard to make an argument that this current version of the New England offense could actually be superior to the nearly unstoppable juggernaut that put up an NFL-record 589 points during a 16-0 regular season in 2007.
But when considering that Tom Brady didn't have Rob Gronkowski or Aaron Hernandez to throw to that year, such a statement suddenly doesn't seem as far- fetched.
The sensational second-year duo has helped to revolutionize a tight end position that's traditionally been viewed as a secondary outlet for quarterbacks, shattering much more than stereotypes in their instant ascension to stardom. The pair's combined 2011 totals of 169 catches, 2,237 yards and 24 touchdowns were by far the most by a tight end tandem in NFL history, well ahead of the 163 grabs and 1,927 yards compiled by a foursome of San Diego Chargers in 1984.
Gronkowski also etched his name into the individual record books with a spectacular sophomore season that saw the punishing 22-year-old rack up 1,327 receiving yards and an NFL-best 17 touchdown catches, both the most ever by a tight end. He would add three more scoring grabs in New England's 45-10 shellacking of Denver in the AFC Divisional Playoffs, a game in which the 2010 second-round draft choice hauled in 10 Brady passes for 145 yards.
Though Hernandez's stats aren't quite as gaudy, the athletic Connecticut native still made a sizeable contribution to an offense that amassed the third-most net passing yards (5,084) in a season in NFL annals. He came through with 79 catches and 910 receiving yards despite sitting out a pair of games with a knee sprain, surpassing the 100-yard mark three times over the course of the year.
"Those guys are exceptional tight ends and they've been Brady's go-to guys all year long along with [slot receiver] Wes Welker," said New York Giants safety Antrel Rolle, whose team will once again be the Patriots' Super Bowl opponent in yet another striking similarity between the 2007 and 2011 seasons. "They present a great challenge."
Rolle and his defensive mates may be catching a giant break in this championship rematch, however, after Gronkowski suffered a significant sprain of his left ankle in New England's narrow victory over Baltimore in the AFC title game on Jan. 22. Though the invaluable All-Pro had shed his walking boot during Tuesday's Media Day and is fully expected to play in the Super Bowl, it's likely he'll be limited physically to at least some extent.
"He's such a huge weapon and causes so many mismatches it makes it hard for defenses to focus on one player," said Hernandez. "Obviously if he's a hundred percent, that's what we need."
While having Gronkowski at potentially less than full strength is an obvious concern, it's not as if the Patriots will be lacking offensive options when they take the field at Indianapolis' Lucas Oil Stadium seeking to avenge their 17-14 loss to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII. Not only can New England boast a three-time champion quarterback in Brady, whose 5,235 passing yards in 2011 ranks as the second-highest amount ever, but the ever-reliable Welker came through with his fourth 100-catch season in five years and fellow wideout Deion Branch was the MVP of New England's Super Bowl XXXIX triumph over Philadelphia seven years ago.
And of course, there's Hernandez, whose ability to excel in a number of different roles has made the Patriots an even more difficult foe to defend. Though a bit undersized by tight-end standards at 6-foot-2 and 245 pounds, the 22-year-old's above-average speed and agility allows creative coordinator Bill O'Brien to often deploy him as a jacked-up wide receiver who often lines up in the slot, and he's even been utilized as a running back at times to add another wrinkle for opponents. In the Divisional Round rout of the Broncos, Hernandez led New England with 61 rushing yards on five carries.
The 6-foot-6, 265-pound Gronkowski is more the prototypical tight end whose remarkable exploits as a receiver often overshadow his prowess and value as an in-line blocker.
"Those two guys complement each other well," noted Patriots head coach Bill Belichick. "They compete against each other in a good way. They learn from each other. They've done a great job for us over the past two seasons. I'm glad we have them."
Below is a capsule look at the offense of the New England Patriots, with regular season statistics in parentheses::
Quarterback: Brady (5235 passing yards, 39 TD, 12 INT) had already entered this postseason with a laundry list of achievements, and the two-time league MVP further enhanced his legacy by tying an NFL playoff record with six touchdown passes in the Denver game. He then matched boyhood idol Joe Montana for the most postseason wins (16) by a signal-caller in the AFC Championship ousting of Baltimore, despite tossing two interceptions and playing poorly in his own analysis. The 34-year-old has still generated an excellent 25-to-5 touchdown- to-interception ratio during the 10-game win streak the Patriots bring into Indianapolis, and the 39 scoring strikes he accounted for in the regular season were the second-most of his glorious career.
Running Backs: Though it lacks a true standout, New England's backfield-by- committee approach has provided a useful complement to the team's passing proficiency. Leading rusher BenJarvus Green-Ellis (667 rushing yards, 11 TD) is a strong between-the-tackles performer who's scored 24 touchdowns over the past two seasons, though the undrafted free-agent's most impressive stat is the zero fumbles over 562 career touches he's had over his four-year tenure. That impeccable track record is the main reason why he's ahead of more-talented rookie Stevan Ridley (441 rushing yards, 1 TD), benched for the AFC Championship after losing a fumble against Denver the week prior, on the depth chart. Former Jets castoff Danny Woodhead (351 rushing yards, 1 TD, 18 receptions) now holds down the third-down role held for years by 13-year vet Kevin Faulk, who's been used sparingly since returning from an ACL tear in midseason.
Wide Receivers: No New England player benefited more by the emergence of Gronkowski and Hernandez than Welker (122 receptions, 1569 yards, 9 TD), whose 1,569 receiving yards eclipsed Moss' club season mark set in 2007 and ranked second in the NFL this year, and the prolific slot specialist was a real handful for the Giants in both Super Bowl XLII (11 catches, 103 yards) as well as the Patriots' 24-20 loss to New York back in November (9 catches, 136 yards). Branch (51 receptions, 5 TD) also owns a wealth of big-game experience, having been an integral part of two previous championship teams during his first tour of duty with the organization from 2002-06, but Ochocinco (15 receptions, 1 TD) has been essentially an afterthought following a slow adjustment to a new scheme, having fallen behind both Welker clone Julian Edelman and ex-Jaguars washout Tiquan Underwood in the pecking order late in the season.
Tight Ends: The health status of Gronkowski (90 receptions, 1327 yards, 17 TD) has been one of the most followed storylines of this year's Big Game, and for good reason. He was a big factor in New England's Week 9 meeting with the Giants, netting 101 yards and a touchdown on eight catches, and eight of Brady's 12 interceptions during the regular season came on plays in which Gronkowski and sidekick Hernandez (79 receptions, 7 TD) weren't on the field together. Hernandez has been more of a focal point as of late, however, having averaged six catches and 85 yards over the Patriots' six most recent wins.
Offensive Line: Usually an unsung part of New England's sustained success, this five-man group has held up pretty well in 2011 despite two key regulars, center Dan Koppen and right tackle Sebastian Vollmer, having missed the majority of the season due to injuries. The Patriots have started three players since longtime pivot man Koppen fractured his ankle in the Week 1 opener, with capable substitute Dan Connolly manning the position for most of the way and filling in adequately, and promising rookie Nate Solder has earned his stripes by starting 13 times in place of Vollmer, who hasn't played since November because of an ankle problem but will be ready if needed for the Super Bowl. The remainder of the line is loaded with experience and prestige, as guards Logan Mankins and Brian Waters have been named to 10 Pro Bowls between them and left tackle Matt Light has served as Brady's trusted blind-side protector since breaking into the league in 2001.
<< Nets pick up G Bogans
East Rutherford, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Seeking to bolster its defensive
performance, the New Jersey Nets signed 6-foot-5 free agent guard Keith Bogans
on Wednesday.
Per team policy, contract terms were not disclosed.
"Keith will
<< Rams and Rebels duke it out in Sin City
Las Vegas, NV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Off to their best start since the 1991-92
campaign, the UNLV Runnin' Rebels find themselves ranked 11th in the nation
and tied for the top spot in the Mountain West Conference as they prepare for
the arrival of
<< Broncos battle 17th-ranked Aztecs
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Trying to win their first conference game as
a member of the Mountain West, the Boise State Broncos face one of their
toughest tests yet as they tangle with 17th-ranked San Diego State at Viejas
Arena tonight.
<< Huskies and Hoyas square off Big East action
Washington, D.C. (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Connecticut Huskies have made their
way to the nation's capital for tonight's Big East Conference showdown with
the 14th-ranked Georgetown Hoyas.
UConn is hoping to put the brakes on a three-game slide
Penguins claim F O'Reilly off re-entry waivers >>
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pittsburgh Penguins claimed forward Cal
O'Reilly off of re-entry waivers from the Phoenix Coyotes on Wednesday.
The 25-year-old has registered two goals and four assists in 27 combined games
with Nashvi
Wilshere suffers another injury setback >>
London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Arsenal and England midfielder Jack
Wilshere will spend further time on the sidelines after developing a stress
fracture in his right foot.
The 20-year-old has been out of action since June a
Newcastle's Cabaye handed three-match ban >>
Newcastle, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Newcastle midfielder Yohan Cabaye has
failed in his appeal to the English Football Association over a violent
conduct charge stemming from Saturday's FA Cup loss to Brighton and Hove
Albion,
Pirates ink veteran hurler Cruz to minor league deal >>
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday signed
pitcher Juan Cruz to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring
training.
The 33-year-old right-hander went 5-0 with a 3.88 earned run average
Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
Elite 8 NCAA Tournament Betting at online sportsbook MySportsbook.com
In what should be an outstanding Saturday of March Madness betting action, the top four teams in the South and West Regions square off in what should be extremely close match-ups. Three of the four teams are coming off extremely close games on Thursday evening, only UCLA won semi comfortably over Pitt 64-55.
Ohio State is coming off their second game in a row where in all reality they should have lost. Of course that doesn’t matter now since the name of the game is “survive and advance” but as the tournament continues, they can’t afford to keep getting down to their opponents early. Kansas also avoided a scare by holding off a scrappy Southern Illinois squad. In the third thrilling game of the evening Memphis pulled off the minor upset (+3.5) despite being the higher seed to Texas A&M.
Although the spreads are fairly small for Saturday’s games, MySportsbook.com continue to bet against the underdogs. Despite OSU’s two scares, 86% of the “betting public” feels the Buckeyes (-1.5) have what it takes to make the Final Four. In fact, so much of the early money is on OSU that the line has already moved from -1 to -1.5. In the second game of the doubleheader, Kansas and their high-powered offense are 2 point favorites as they take on UCLA and their effective defense. About 63% of the early money thus far is once again backing the favorites. If those percentages stay that high, don’t be surprised if this line moves as well. If you like Kansas (-2) you might want to jump on it early.
Memphis vs. Ohio State
Both squads were involved in thrillers on Thursday evening and should come out fired up. OSU can ill afford to get behind early like they did versus their previous two opponents (Xavier, Tennessee). Greg Oden needs to stay out of foul trouble; the Buckeyes are a completely different team when he is on the court. Memphis definitely has the athleticism and length to match-up with OSU. Of Memphis’ five leading minute earners, the shortest of the bunch is 6’5”. Each team has a very effective defense; Memphis surrenders 62.3 PPG whereas the Buckeyes give up only 61 PPG. With those type of numbers, it isn’t surprising that Memphis covered the UNDER almost 69% of the time this season. As a favorite, OSU has covered the UNDER almost 66% of the time over the last three seasons. The major concern for Memphis which is magnifies this time of the year is their brutal foul shooting (62%). This season, OSU is 17-11 ATS versus teams with a winning record and 7-2 ATS in all tournament games. Memphis has been an extremely reliable cover in tournament play in recent years with a 23-8 ATS record over the last three seasons.
UCLA vs. Kansas
In the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader, UCLA will play in a role which they are very unfamiliar with that of the underdog. Only twice this season have they been getting points from the handicappers and both times they covered. Over the last three seasons UCLA is a reliable 23-7 ATS in this unfamiliar role. UCLA has not fared well against Big 12 opponents recently going 1-7 ATS since 1997. Giving up only 59.6 PPG, UCLA will definitely look to do what they do best: keep this game as low scoring as possible. Their defense has been especially tough during the tournament. UCLA opponents have been able to muster up only 48.7 PPG while shooting a combined 34.5% from the field. UCLA definitely has a challenge at hand with a Kansas team that is capable of putting points on the board in bunches. As a team, they average 79 PPG and shoot an impressive 49.6% from the field and 39.4% from beyond the arc. During the tournament Kansas has been “lights out” from the field having shot 56.2%.
With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action. Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”. By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.
To bet on March Madness games this online sportsbook accepts credit cards
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